2015-16 AFC South Preview

AFC South

This is the seventh of eight divisional previews for the 2015-16 season.  You can view the other six posts here:

NFC West  |  NFC North  |  NFC South  |  NFC East  |  AFC West  |  AFC North

Once again, all data displayed comes from simulating the entire NFL season 10,000 times.

First up are the heavily favored Indianapolis Colts:

2014 Record: 11-5  |  Home Games: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, DEN  |  Away Games: MIA, BUF, CAR, ATL, PIT


The Colts are likely to end the season with 10-13 wins with an 11-5 record as the most likely in the simulation.  There is a ton of upside in Indy as the Colts ended with 14+ wins in 8.2% of all simulations.  The Colts are a good team with a great quarterback and they happen to play in a pretty lousy division.  Those factors add up to a likely double-digit win total.


Colts O/UOver %Under %Implied Odds
10 wins64.2%17.7%-363 / +363
10.5 wins64.2%35.8%-179 / +179
11 wins42.9%35.8%-120 / +120

The current line at 5Dimes is 10.5 with the over juiced at -165.  This calls for a small wager on Colts Over 10.5 as one of my season win total bets.

Led by J.J. Watt, next up are the Houston Texans:

2014 Record: 9-7  |  Home Games: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, KC  |  Away Games: MIA, BUF, CAR, ATL, CIN


Coming off of a 9-7 record last season, the most likely result is a repeat of nine wins, even with all of the personnel changes.


Texans O/UOver %Under %Implied Odds
8 wins52.5%27.7%-190 / +190
8.5 wins52.5%47.5%-111 / +111
9 wins31.9%47.5%+149 / -149

No play on the over or the under as 8.5 is right in line with what the market is currently offering.

Now let’s take a look at the Jacksonville Jaguars:

2014 Record: 3-13  |  Home Games: MIA, BUF*, CAR, ATL, SD  |  Away Games: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, BAL


The most likely result is a 6-10 result for the Jags.  For most teams that would be disappointing, but mediocrity would be a step up for this franchise and six wins would represent a 100% increase over last season.


Texans O/UOver %Under %Implied Odds
5 wins57.2%23.3%-246 / +246
5.5 wins57.2%42.8%-134 / +134
6 wins36.1%42.8%+119 / -119

Another example of the betting market being right in line with the simulation results.  5.5 wins with the over juiced up is the exact price to keep us from betting the over on Jacksonville.

Rounding out the division are the Tennessee Titans

2014 Record: 2-14  |  Home Games: MIA, BUF, CAR, ATL, OAK  |  Away Games: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, CLE


It looks like it could be a rough rookie season for Marcus Mariota.  A 5-11 season is the most likely scenario and a winning season only occurred in 4.5% of simulations.  Essentially, you would need to get better than 20-to-1 odds to bet the Titans to win more games than they lose.


Texans O/UOver %Under %Implied Odds
5 wins44.9%33.3%-135 / +135
5.5 wins44.9%55.1%+123 / -123
6 wins24.9%55.1%+221 / -221

Like the Jaguars above, the Titans win total is set at 5.5 and again appears to be a number that we can’t fire at.

Finally we’ll look at the divisional odds for each team.

TeamDivision %Implied Odds

As expected, the Colts are runaway favorites; winning the division in nearly 80% of simulations.  The Titans odds seem high considering the “any given Sunday” mantra, but the simulation just doesn’t give Tennessee much of a chance.

I’ll be back tomorrow with the preview of the AFC East?  Are the Patriots still the favorite with the Brady suspension?  If you have any questions or comments about the simulation results, click the button below.

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