This is the eighth and final preview for the 2015-16 NFL season. You can view the previous divisional previews here:
Once again, the data displayed comes from simulating the entire season 10,000 times.
I’ll admit that the reason I scheduled the AFC East as the last preview was to hopefully gain some clarity on the Tom Brady suspension. At this point, that clarity never came to fruition and we’re left with nothing more than an educated guess as to how many games the Golden Boy will be in uniform this upcoming season.
While it could be four games missed and could be zero, I’m going to take a conservative estimate of two games lost for Brady. Once there is a resolution to this ordeal, then I will rerun the simulation and see how the Patriots (and their opponents) are affected.
Now, onto the simulation results:
2014 Record: 12-4 | Home Games: JAX, TEN, PHI, WAS, PIT | Away Games: HOU, IND, DAL, NYG, DEN
The most common result for the Patriots is a 10-6 season. When I ran the simulation with Brady missing zero games, the most common result improved to 11-5. There are questions abound for New England heading into the season, but make no mistake, they are still the team to beat in the AFC East.
|Patriots O/U||Over %||Under %||Implied Odds|
|9.5 wins||54.2%||45.8%||-118 / +118|
|10 wins||33.7%||45.8%||+136 / -136|
|10.5 wins||33.7%||66.3%||+197 / -197|
The current team over/under is set at ten wins. While the simulation would suggest a bet on Patriots Under 10, I can’t possibly make a bet on the Patriots until a resolution on the Brady suspension is given. If you feel like he’s definitely going to be suspended, then feel free to take the plunge.
Next up are the Miami Dolphins:
2014 Record: 8-8 | Home Games: HOU, IND, DAL, NYG, BAL | Away Games: JAX, TEN, PHI, WAS, SD
The Fins look poised to take a step forward. I’m not predicting them to be the best team in the conference, but a nine or ten win season are the most likely results for Miami in 2015 and that puts them firmly in the hunt for a division title.
|Dolphins O/U||Over %||Under %||Implied Odds|
|8 wins||64.6%||19.3%||-335 / +335|
|8.5 wins||64.6%||35.4%||-182 / +182|
|9 wins||44.3%||35.4%||-125 / +125|
The simulation really likes the Dolphins to go over their projected win total. The problem is the juice on these bets has taken out any value that is there. 5Dimes has Miami Over 8.5 at -175 while Sportsbook has Over 9 -120. Those numbers are in alignment with the simulation results meaning no bet either way.
Not far behind are the Buffalo Bills:
2014 Record: 9-7 | Home Games: HOU, IND, DAL, NYG, CIN | Away Games: JAX, TEN, PHI, WAS, KC
The Bills finished with a 9-7 record in just nine more simulated seasons than they finished 8-8, so they are teetering on a fine line between the two. Buffalo has a new coach, a new quarterback, a new running back, and they are most likely to end up right where they ended last season with nine wins.
|Bills O/U||Over %||Under %||Implied Odds|
|8 wins||49.5%||31.2%||-159 / +159|
|8.5 wins||49.5%||50.5%||+102 / -102|
|9 wins||30.2%||50.5%||+167 / -167|
With 8.5 being the most common number showing at sportsbooks, it’s important to find a good number for either side. The simulation says it’s nearly a coin flip for 8 or 9 wins so if you can find a book that is shading heavily towards one side, you can get positive expected value by betting the other side.
We finish with the New York Jets:
2014 Record: 4-12 | Home Games: JAX, TEN, PHI, WAS, CLE | Away Games: HOU, IND, DAL, NYG, OAK
This was somewhat surprising for me to see as I thought the projected wins would be much lower for the Jets. (To be fair, I have seen Geno Smith play football with my own eyes which could be swaying my opinion.) The most common result is an 8-8 season with 7-9 not too far behind. Still, that would be a 3 or 4-win improvement over last season’s 4-12 disaster that saw Rex Ryan get shipped upstate to the Bills.
|Jets O/U||Over %||Under %||Implied Odds|
|7 wins||54.1%||25.9%||-209 / +209|
|7.5 wins||54.1%||45.9%||-118 / +118|
|8 wins||33.5%||45.9%||+137 / -137|
Once again, the sportsbooks are spot on with the simulation results. This makes me think that sportsbooks are also splitting the difference in regards to the Brady suspension until further information comes out.
Finally, let’s take a look at the divisional results:
|Team||Division %||Implied Odds|
Of the 10,000 simulations, the Patriots wound up winning the division in fewer than half. You could make a fairly even prop pitting Patriots or Jets to win the division against the Dolphins and Bills. While the Brady suspension may be frustrating for Patriots fans, it looks to have added some much needed intrigue to a division that is usually wrapped up by late October.
That’s it for the NFL preview series. Make sure to follow Bet Labs on twitter throughout the season for NFL systems and other great information. You can also create your own NFL systems for free from our home page. Best of luck this season!Discuss this Post