A perfect season, winning 19 of 19 games on the way to a Super Bowl title, is the Holy Grail in the NFL. Is 19-0 possible? We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season to find out.
If any team is going to run the table, they first have to win each regular season game. How often does a team finish 16-0 in our simulations?
In 10,000 simulations, there are 168 teams that don’t lose a regular season game. The Patriots are the most likely team to accomplish the feat. The defending champions added Brandin Cooks, Stephon Gilmore and Kony Ealy in the offseason and expect to get a fully healthy Rob Gronkowski back as well. The Pats are the most likely team to make the playoffs in 2017 and are our pick to win the Super Bowl.
Any team 16-0? (5Dimes)
- Yes +775
- No -1200
There is a 1.68% chance that one team ends the season 16-0. The implied probability, according to the odds, is that a team goes through the regular season undefeated 12.9% of the time. There is no value betting “Yes”.
How often do our 16-0 teams go on to win the Super Bowl?
The Patriots complete the perfect season 54 times in 10,000 simulations. The only other team to do so is the Steelers. Pittsburgh goes 19-0 one time when we simulated the 2017 season 10,000 times.
Any team 19-0 Super Bowl winner? (5Dimes)
- Yes +1400
- No -2500
The bookmakers are offering 14/1 odds that a team has a perfect season. The odds would need to be closer to 180/1 to offer any value. There is just a 0.55% chance any team goes 19-0.
5Dimes is offering props on the Patriots going 16-0 (+1150) and 19-0 (+2000). As you might guess, it is a bad bet to wager on New England going undefeated.
A decade ago, the Pats almost completed the perfect season but came up short against the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. A team going 19-0 isn’t impossible, it’s just improbable.
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