Six teams have started the season 0-2 against-the-spread. Seattle, New Orleans, New York Jets, New York Giants, Cincinnati and Arizona have let bettors down in back-to-back weeks. In six of their ten games, these teams received 50% or more of spread bets. Casual bettors are likely to fade these poor performing squads but that would be a mistake. 0-2 ATS teams are great buy back opportunities.

Teams that fail to cover against-the-spread in consecutive weeks beat the number 52% of the time in the next game.

The best time of the season to buy back on 0-2 ATS teams is Week 3.

A two-game sample can’t tell us much about these teams, especially when it comes to covering the spread. Teams that start the season 0-2 ATS, have gone 61-49 (55.5%) ATS in Week 3.

If the team gets less than 50% of the spread bets the win rate improves to 58.1% ATS. Most teams won’t get public support because they have burned bettors.

Less than 50% of spread tickets are on the Seahawks, Jets, Bengals and Cardinals in their Week 3 matchups. None of these teams have covered against-the-spread in 2017 and public bettors are fading them.

Right now, we have a good contrarian system. You can add one more filter to improve win rate. Road teams (theory, if they can’t cover at home won’t be able to on the road either) that are 0-2 ATS and receiving less than 50% of spread bets have gone 26-15 (63.4%) ATS since 2003. This is a small sample but the results have been consistent. In the last 15 years, only twice has this betting system had a losing year.

Casual bettors tend to overreact to small samples. Take advantage of this public bias and bet 0-2 ATS teams (Seahawks and Bengals) on the road with little pubic support in Week 3.


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