Only one team in NFL history has finished a season 0-16. Misery loves company, can a team go winless and match the 2008 Detroit Lions in futility?
0-16 is possible but is it probable? Based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season there are eight teams that could flirt with the wrong kind of perfection.
|Team||Number of times: 0-16|
It took 16 weeks before the Browns won a game last season. Cleveland is no closer to finding its franchise quarterback, will start Brock Osweiler in the first preseason game, and plays one of the toughest schedules in football. The Browns are the most likely team to lose every game.
There is a lot of chatter about the Jets going 0-16. It didn’t help when the team’s best offensive player was lost for the season. The bookmakers list Gang Green as the favorite to finish winless but our simulations only see it occurring 18 times in 10,000 simulations.
The AFC East is well represented. The Bills go 0-16 once and the Dolphins put up a goose egg one time as well with Jay Cutler starting. There is a 0.2% chance a team from the AFC East, other than the Patriots, fails to win a game.
Will a team go 0-16 (5Dimes)
- Yes +1250
- No -2000
In total, there are 88 times a team finishes 0-16 in our simulations. That works out to a 0.88% chance we see a team go defeated. The implied probability for the prop bet is 7.4%. No matter how bad you think your team or your rival is, there is no value betting “Yes”. There is value on “No” but do you want to wager $2,000 to win $100?
5Dimes is also offering individual team props on going 0-16. Once again, no value can be found for betting yes. The Jets will struggle to win games this year but in order to place a wager on them going 0-16 the odds would need to be approximately 550/1, not 15/1.
Team Odds to go 0-16
|Team||Odds||Implied Probability||Projected Chance|
Try Bet Labs for a month
Build winning betting systems for the NFL